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    Sumit Bera

    Pavel Durov Journey: USA vs Telegram

    TON and Gram regulations
    How about we proceed with our investigation of Telegram blockchain stage. What forestalls to bring the new TON organization and its digital money to the US market and what will occur next with billions of dollars of ventures.

    Why US authorities actively struggle with the currency of Telegram

    As of April 2021, Binance Exchange is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world, supporting more than 1.4 million transactions per second.

    The United States has the Federal Reserve System and the fiat currency named USD, which is completely controlled by the state; there are cooperating payment systems Visa and Mastercard in a business too. Any influential creator of his own currency and system that doesn't obey to anyone but the creator is a threat and a serious competitor to the United States.

    There is a conspiracy thesis that the US’s active struggle with Telegram is caused by the fact that Roman Abramovich and several other big names listed as investors:

    • David Yakobashvili (founder of Wimm-Bill-Dann).
    • Sergey Solonin (founder of QIWI payment system)
    • Mikhail Gutseriev (owner of the Safmar group).
    • Mikhail Abyzov (ex-minister, currently in custody).
    • Silicon Valley companies.
    • Personal followers of the charisma of Pavel Durov (Jared Leto, for example).

    It is unlikely that this was the real reason for the pressure from the United States, since there are probably more “big people” behind the other large cryptocurrencies. In addition, the same theory can't be tied to government attacks on Facebook Libra.

    How scammers took advantage of the hype around Gram and TON

    Since the announcement of Gram cryptocurrency, a lot of fake platforms have appeared. Scammers offer to buy Gram, to manage, to invest, and to trade this currency (as you noticed, this is impossible). It's important to understand everything described above and not to fall into these traps.

    The impact of the outcome of "United States vs. Telegram" lawsuit on the entire crypto industry

    1. This situation shows the unwillingness of the global legal system to make way to cryptocurrencies and contribute to the development of decentralized systems.
    2. Gram was supposed to become a serious competitor to Bitcoin and Libra project, and it could seriously change the balance of power in the market.
    3. If the ambitious TON launch plan is not implemented, the reputation of Telegram and Pavel Durov personally will seriously shake.
    4. This failure won't lead to the collapse of the Telegram system. SEC has repeatedly attacked various crypto platforms and startups. In addition, Facebook's Libra cryptocurrency is also under constant pressure from US authorities.
    5. The initiative group named "TON Community Foundation" is ready to continue work on TON on its own, which increases the chances of the project to survive and rise.

    What could happen next with TON

    1. Pavel Durov was ready to meet the requirements of the SEC and began to make changes. But this didn't suit the Commission. Therefore, globally, the creator of Telegram now has several outputs:
    2. "The path of Neo" — he may take a position of non-reconciliation. This will not help stop the US judicial machine but will allow Pavel to maintain his image. TON will lose in its current form. Meanwhile, the Durov brothers will quietly make the new TON without an ICO / IPO.
    3. Full compliance with SEC requirements — regulation of TON and elimination of all reasons to consider Gram securities. In this case, it will no longer be a crypto network and its meaning will be lost. In addition, the SEC position makes it clear that it will not accept any improvements and seeks to completely freeze the project.
    4. According to "Kommersant" Magazine, from 2018 to the beginning of 2020, Telegram spent $ 405 million (just 23.8% of the amount received from the preliminary sale of tokens) on the development of the messenger and TON platform.
    5. The likelihood that the raised $ 1.7 billion will have to be fully or partially repaid is extremely high. Large investors will try to get their money back in court. It will be difficult for micro-investors to return their funds.
    6. With a pessimistic forecast of a complete failure in the USA, Telegram cryptocurrency can quite successfully work in Europe, Japan, and other countries and continents, where authorities and regulators are more loyal to cryptocurrencies.

    What will happen to the price of Gram

    Due to bad March 2020 news for Telegram, there is no reason for the price increase. Investors have a high risk of being left without their invested money. Many of these investors will be ready to return at least a part of their investments to cut their losses. Therefore, there are three options for Gram price over the next six months if the SEC decision does not change (taking into account the fact that officially Gram cannot be quoted):

    • Unlikely: constant price.
    • The most probable is a price reduction, possibly a strong one.
    • Impossible: price increase.

    Stay tuned for further updates!